AI displacement risk — sources
EMT/Paramedic 8%
willrobotstakemyjob.com (BLS O*NET): near-0% automation probability. Forbes Dec 2025: "emergency response is the antithesis of what automation does well."
RN 12%
Anthropic Labor Market Report 2026 (aichanging.work): 12% automation risk, direct care tasks just 8%. Note: AI may reduce documentation work time ~51% — task reduction, not job displacement.
NP 14%
US Career Institute 2025: among 65 lowest-risk occupations. Forbes Dec 2025: resistant due to physical exam and patient relationships. NPSchools Jul 2026: AI cannot perform physical exams or procedural tasks.
PA 16%
Washington Post Mar 2026: PAs projected lowest AI vulnerability in healthcare. Forbes Dec 2025: human elements central to practice. Wolters Kluwer 2025: AI augments documentation (+50% efficiency), does not displace.
MD General Practice 32%
Nature Digital Medicine Mar 2025 (83-study meta-analysis): AI within 0.6% of GP diagnostic accuracy — statistically insignificant gap. Springer ICISMED 2025 (56 PRISMA studies): primary care among most AI-impacted clinical roles.
MD Specialist / MD PSLF 18%
Nature Digital Medicine Mar 2025 (83 studies): AI trails expert specialists by 15.8 percentage points (p=0.007). Springer ICISMED 2025: surgery shows lower AI vulnerability than primary care. PSLF affects financing only — same clinical risk profile.
Compensation growth assumptions
EMT/Paramedic — Start $38k, 2% real growth, ceiling ~$65k. Flat trajectory; advancement via paramedic certification or bridge programs. Source: BLS OOH 2024–25.
RN — Start $70k, 2% real growth. Specialty and travel nursing can accelerate to $130k. Modelled as steady 2% — conservative given travel premium. Source: BLS median RN $93,600 (2024).
NP — Start $110k (attending from year 1 of NP role), 2% real growth. Earn-while-learning as RN ($70k) during training years modelled via lostIncomeK adjustment. Source: BLS NP median $126,260 (2024).
PA — Start $115k, 2% real growth. Specialist PA tracks (surgery, cardiology) can reach $160k+. Modelled conservatively at 2%. Source: BLS PA median $130,020 (2024).
MD General Practice — Residency plateau: 3 years at $65k before attending step-up to $200k, then 2% real growth. Residency salary per AAMC 2024–25 data ($61k–$70k range). Attending salary: BLS primary care physician median $226k (2024).
MD Specialist / MD PSLF — Residency plateau: 4 years at $65k (combined residency + fellowship) before attending step-up to $380k, then 2% real growth. Late-career specialist peak ($500k–$650k) not modelled — conservative. Source: Doximity 2025 salary survey; AAMC residency data.
Disclaimer: AI displacement estimates are research-based projections, not guarantees. Individual risk varies by employer, specialisation, and technology adoption pace. Compensation figures are US national medians — regional variation applies. DCF model: 7% default discount rate · BLS OOH 2024–25 · Grad PLUS rate 8.05% · retire at 65 · all figures in 2026 dollars.